With PCK's processing capacity reduced to 60 percent, the German refinery is unable to fully meet regional demand. Orlen could fill that gap by drawing on its own terminals, the PERN pipeline network and its tanker truck fleet. Such an operation would not only stabilise supply for the German consumer, but would also allow the Polish concern to build durable business relationships in a market that, until now, has been largely closed and dominated by the Russians. It is worth recalling that just a few years ago Orlen seriously considered a capital entry into PCK — talks centred on acquiring a stake, but Poland was deceived, because the Germans never genuinely contemplated removing the Russians from PCK's ownership architecture.
Russia has announced that it will halt oil transit through Russian territory as of 1 May, and the PCK refinery in Schwedt now faces the real risk of seeing its processing capacity utilisation drop from 80 percent to 60 percent. For a plant with an annual processing capacity of 11.5 million tonnes, this would mean a serious curtailment of supplies to Berlin and eastern Germany. In this situation, a historic opportunity opens up for Poland — and specifically for PKN Orlen — to take over a substantial share of the eastern German fuels market, especially in the JET A1 aviation fuel segment.
The PCK refinery, in which Russia's Rosneft remains the majority shareholder (54 percent), is the key fuel supplier for the Berlin metropolitan area and Brandenburg. It covers around 95 percent of the region's demand for petrol and diesel, and as much as 80 percent of the aviation fuel for Berlin Brandenburg airport (BER). The historical experience of 2022, when the embargo on Russian oil forced Germany to look for alternative sources, showed that Poland is able to provide real support to Schwedt — only for Germany to then exploit it cynically. Thanks to the Naftoport infrastructure in Gdańsk and Orlen's logistical capabilities, the refinery's load was kept above 70 percent of processing capacity at the time, sustained by seaborne crude deliveries.
Today PKN Orlen holds a decisive competitive advantage. According to industry data, the concern's Płock refinery is the largest producer of aviation fuel in Poland. Its monthly production capacity reaches almost 100,000 tonnes of JET A1 (which translates into more than 1.2 million tonnes per year). Orlen supplies this product to virtually every major airport in the country, from Warsaw Chopin and Modlin to Kraków, Katowice, Rzeszów, Poznań, Gdańsk and Wrocław. Crucially, it produces not only standard JET A1 for civil aviation, but also specialist military variants: F-34 (with anti-corrosion and lubricating additives) for the Polish Armed Forces, and JP-8 (with anti-icing additives) for the U.S. Army. This diversification of the offer and the proven quality of the products (with certificates compliant with international standards) make Orlen a natural candidate to take over part of the eastern German market, where demand for kerosene (jet fuel — editor's note) is stable and high, given the location of BER (Berlin Brandenburg Airport — editor's note) and the Bundeswehr's air bases.
Poland today possesses modern refining assets, ports and experience in crisis-time deliveries, and can once again prove that it is a provider of energy stability in Europe. If Orlen effectively seizes this opportunity, it will not only safeguard Polish economic interests, but also contribute to building a new, more resilient energy security architecture across the entire region of Europe — and in that, Poland's role will take on particular significance.
