In the first quarter of 2026, the European Union recorded a surplus in goods trade with countries outside the bloc of 12.7 billion euro. Although the balance remained positive, this result represents an almost twofold deterioration compared with the 23.6 billion euro surplus from the fourth quarter of 2025.
After a period of deep deficits caused by the energy crisis in 2021-2023, the EU gradually rebuilt a positive trade balance. The Q1 2026 surplus is, however, markedly lower than in previous periods. These negative trends were partly offset by an improvement in other manufactured goods, where the deficit fell from -10.9 billion to -5.0 billion euro, and by an increase in the surplus in the “other goods” category from 7.2 billion to 11.5 billion euro.
EU goods exports contracted by 0.1% compared with the previous quarter - the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. At the same time, imports rose by 1.7%, breaking a run of three quarters of reductions. These dynamics point to a weakening of external demand alongside a revival in imports, which may signal both a slowdown in the global economy and internal demand factors in Europe.
The current situation is not accidental. The year 2025 and the start of 2026 were marked by an escalation of trade wars, particularly in transatlantic relations. The tariff policy of the American administration, introducing increased tariffs on many categories of goods from the EU (including steel, aluminium, vehicles and chemicals), significantly affected export dynamics. Although the EU negotiated certain agreements to soften the effects, this did not prevent a decline in the competitiveness of European products on the key American market.
Analyses indicate that American tariffs, reaching as high as 15% on many items, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, are curbing investment and exports. At the same time, the EU is contending with competition from China, which, despite its own challenges, is using its production surpluses to expand into third markets. European producers are losing market share both in the high-technology segment and in more traditional industries.
The most heavily affected are countries with strongly export-oriented economies, such as Germany, which generate a significant part of the EU's surplus in machinery and vehicles. The decline in exports in this category hits supply chains stretching from Czechia and Poland to Slovakia and Hungary. Meanwhile, southern European countries, more dependent on energy imports, are feeling the pressure of a growing energy deficit.
Poland, as one of the largest exporters in the region, must also adapt to the new reality. Polish exports to countries outside the EU showed resilience in recent quarters, but a further slowdown in Germany and on global markets could limit momentum. At the same time, the diversification of export destinations (Asia, Africa, Latin America) and the development of the green technology sector could become an opportunity for sustainable growth.
The current data fit into a broader debate on the EU's economic model. The Draghi report and numerous analyses emphasise the need to reduce excessive reliance on net exports as the main engine of growth. The EU's high trade openness, with exports and imports exceeding 40% of GDP, makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks - from energy shocks to tariff wars.
In the context of low eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026, when only a marginal recovery was recorded, a further deterioration of the trade balance could increase pressure on the ECB's monetary policy and on national budgets. On the other hand, a fall in energy prices in some periods and potential new trade agreements could bring an improvement.
However, the structural challenges remain: an ageing society, deindustrialisation in some regions, competition from economies with lower costs and higher growth dynamics, and a climate transition requiring enormous outlays.
