According to the latest EU statistical guide from DG Trade, published in August 2025, the ten largest trading partners of the EU accounted for nearly two-thirds of the bloc's total international trade. The United States remains the leader, with a 20.6 percent share of EU exports and 13.7 percent of imports, generating a surplus of 197.6 billion euros. China, with a 21.3 percent share of imports and just 8.3 percent of exports, is deepening its deficit to 305.7 billion euros.
The United Kingdom, Switzerland, Turkey, Norway, Japan, South Korea, India, and Brazil round out the top 10, while Russia has dropped to 15th place after a 17.3 percent decline in exports and a 29.2 percent fall in imports. These figures underscore shifts and new trade routes in the EU. Particularly notable are a 9 percent increase in imports from India, stagnation with China, and a revival with Brazil (exports up 1.2 percent, imports up 3.2 percent).
At the member state level, Germany dominates in extra-EU trade. Growth, however, was minimal (exports down 0.8 percent, imports down 4.1 percent). Italy, France, and the Netherlands follow, but eight countries — including Poland (exports of 91.5 billion euros, imports of 114.4 billion euros) — generate 80 percent of total trade value. Ireland recorded an impressive 20.3 percent surge in exports, while Latvia, Lithuania, and Luxembourg suffered declines of more than 10 percent.
The EU's DG Trade statistics correspond with Deutsche Bank analyses from July 2025, which sound the alarm over the declining competitiveness of German exports since 2015. The net contribution of trade to GDP is negative. China, with its growing domestic production and mercantilist policies, is reducing its potential as a destination market. Since 2001, the number of sectors with a competitive advantage has grown to 40 percent. Germany is losing ground in machinery trade, though it holds its own in pharmaceuticals and automobiles. The United States, accounting for 10 percent of German exports, threatens tariffs of 12 to 17 percent, hitting cars, steel, and pharmaceuticals.
Data from the first half of 2025, published by the Ost-Ausschuss, confirms these trends. Germany's trade turnover grew by 1.9 percent to 1.468 trillion euros. The United States leads (124.9 billion euros, with exports up 2.7 percent), followed by China (122.7 billion euros, with exports down 14.2 percent). Poland ranks fifth (90 billion euros, up 5.4 percent), Ukraine is 38th (6.2 billion euros, up 19.5 percent), and Russia 48th (4.2 billion euros, down 12.7 percent). India advanced to 22nd place (15.6 billion euros, up 8.8 percent).
In this context, Deutsche Bank proposes a reconfiguration of trade via a gravity model. The potential lies in the Global South: a simulation of a customs union with India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Thailand, and Vietnam could boost German exports by 125 billion euros (8 percent of the 2024 total). Within the EU, internal barriers are equivalent to 44 percent tariffs in industry and 110 percent in services. The Single Market Strategy aims to harmonize packaging and labeling, unlocking potential.
Poland generated 91.5 billion euros in extra-EU exports last year, accounting for 3.5 percent of total EU exports — a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percent. Extra-EU imports amounted to 114.4 billion euros (4.7 percent of the EU total, up 2.8 percent), producing a deficit of 22.9 billion euros. These figures position Poland as the eighth-largest player in extra-EU trade, behind Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, France, Belgium, Spain, and Ireland.
Poland is an integral part of the EU supply chain. DG Trade data shows that 73.9 percent of Poland's goods exports go within the EU, and 67.4 percent of imports come from member states. Poland's share of intra-EU exports stands at 6.5 percent, and in imports at 6 percent, making it the sixth-largest player in internal trade. In extra-EU services, exports reached 42 billion euros in 2024 (up from 21 billion in 2020), with imports at 22 billion, demonstrating dynamism in sectors such as IT and transport.
However, this strength rests on relations with Germany — Poland's largest trading partner. According to the Ost-Ausschuss table for the first half of 2025, turnover with Berlin exceeded 90 billion euros (up 5.4 percent), with Polish exports to Germany growing by 5.7 percent to 49.4 billion euros. Poland ranks fifth among Germany's top 25 trading partners, behind the United States, China, the Netherlands, and France.
In summary, the trade prospects for Poland are promising if it moves beyond its dependence on Germany and redirects the strengths of its trade toward the Global South and trade with Ukraine. International economic institutes point to the broad range of contacts maintained by Polish export firms worldwide, which provides a good starting point for moving beyond dependence on and the intermediary role of Germany in international trade.
