In the dispute over long-term funding for Ukraine, pressure is mounting on Belgium from both Brussels and Moscow. The EU's plan to use frozen Russian assets is sparking controversy and threatening an escalation of tensions.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever is blocking a decision, fearing retaliation from Moscow. The European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, is meanwhile pressing for a swift resolution. Russia warns of a "painful response." This conflict exposes fractures in European solidarity.

Since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU and its allies have frozen Russian foreign currency reserves and private assets totaling approximately 210 billion euros. The bulk of these — close to 185 billion — are held at Euroclear, the international securities depository headquartered in Brussels. Of that sum, approximately 140 billion euros comes from reserves of the Central Bank of Russia, with the remainder from private accounts of oligarchs and companies.

In October 2024, the G7 nations agreed to use the "extraordinary profits" from these assets — that is, the interest income. These funds are divided into two channels: military and economic, providing Ukraine with ongoing support. However, this is a drop in the ocean of needs. Kyiv is estimated to require as much as 100 billion euros annually for defense over the next two to three years. The EU is therefore considering unlocking the assets themselves in order to extend loans to Ukraine that would be repaid after the war — potentially from Russian reparations.

At the most recent EU summit in Brussels, Belgium blocked the agreement. The small country, representing just 2.6 percent of the EU's population, plays a pivotal role — not only as host to EU institutions but as custodian of these billions.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has not concealed his frustration.

"A bit more legal certainty would be helpful — because this could become very, very, very expensive," he stated. He argues that the absence of a solid legal basis for confiscating the assets exposes Belgium to lawsuits. If Russia prevails in an international tribunal, Brussels would have to return billions — and the costs would not fall on Belgium alone. De Wever demands solidarity from the EU. "If at all, we all have to act together. Otherwise, Belgium will become the sole target of Russian counter-sanctions, which could be very extensive: they could confiscate Belgian companies in Russia or freeze our assets."

Belgium fears not only financial losses but direct retaliation. Russia could target Belgian economic interests on its territory, striking the energy or pharmaceutical sectors. As the home of Euroclear, Belgium is de facto the guarantor of these funds, making it the primary target. Experts warn that such a step would undermine trust in the European financial system — who would want to hold assets in the EU if they can be confiscated at will?

Von der Leyen, the European Commission President, is not backing down.

"We are developing various options. We respect European and national law as we work on this," she assured after the summit. By December 18, the Commission is to present concrete proposals, avoiding confrontation while emphasizing that this is "the most effective solution" for channeling billions in aid to Ukraine. EU diplomacy is playing for time, seeking consensus among the 27 member states — a difficult task when national interests collide with solidarity.

Russia leaves no doubt about its stance. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said: "Any attempt to plunder Russian assets will not go unanswered and will have serious consequences." The Kremlin calls the EU plan "illegal robbery" and promises a "painful response" that could include economic counter-sanctions, cyberattacks, or even military escalation. In the context of the ongoing war, such threats sound like a prelude to a new phase of tensions.